Will Oscar go for "Broke?"

Handicapping this year's Oscar race sure has been interesting. In some categories the winner can be easily predicted. But in others the guessing game is as hard as I can remember. Will Oscar go for "Broke?" Or will it come in for a "Crash" landing? My predictions...

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

For a long time this category was always considered the wild card, with the trophy being awarded to out-of-left-field winners such as Marisa Tomei and Juliette Binoche. But the last three winners (Catherine Zeta-Jones, Renee Zellweger, and Cate Blanchett) were all considered the front-runners going into the movie awards season. This year should be no different.

Rachel Weisz's win at the Golden Globes surprised me. But since then she has picked up momentum (and a SAG award) and going into the weekend she should be considered the front-runner.

Michelle Williams might win but I have a hunch the night will leave "Brokeback Mountain" without any acting trophies. If there is an out-of-left-field upset, then Amy Adams wins for "Junebug" or Catherine Keener wins for "Capote."

I say place your bets on Rachel Weisz.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:

This is, without a doubt, the toughest category to predict. The toughest in a long time, by far. It really is a thorn in my side this year. The way I see it this is a three to four-way horse race, so let's dispense with the guy who will not win: William Hurt. There is absolutely no buzz with this nomination. He is out.

That leaves George Clooney, Matt Dillon, Paul Giamatti, and Jake Gyllenhaal. The Academy is going to give "Brokeback Mountain" its Oscars elsewhere on Sunday night. Therefore I believe that, unless the movie rides some unexpected tidal wave, it will go 0 for 3 in the acting categories. Scratch Gyllenhall.

That leaves three. According to press reports there is apparently a Clooney vs Giamatti contest going on within the Academy. The fight goes like this: Giamatti was snubbed last year for his performance in "Sideways" and the good folks of Hollywood will want to make up for that snub by awarding him for his performance in "Cinderella Man." Clooney has three Oscar nominations on Sunday night - for writing and directing "Good Night, and Good Luck" and here for his role in "Syriana." The writing and directing awards will go to other nominees, so conventional wisdom says the Academy will not want to send Clooney home empty-handed on Sunday night and will mark their ballots for him here.

But, should the current contest between Clooney and Giamatti result in split votes, then Matt Dillon sneaks in and takes the prize for his powerhouse performance in "Crash," a movie which happened to be riding a wave of renewed interest as Oscar ballots were being marked. Thus, I think this race has actually become a fight between Clooney and Dillon.

So, my prediction? I have no idea. My heart tells me Clooney but my gut says Dillon. Do I play it safe or go out a limb?

I'll play it safe: George Clooney wins...maybe.

BEST ACTRESS:

A relatively easy category, with Reese Witherspoon the odds-on favorite to win for playing June Carter Cash in the biopic "Walk the Line."

The only possible chance at an upset would come from Golden Globe winner Felicity Huffman for her performance in "TransAmerica." Uber-movie executive Harvey Weinstein has been working full throttle on her behalf. Unfortunately for Huffman, Mr. Weinstein's magical powers aren't what they used to be.

Keira Knightly's nomination for "Pride & Prejudice" is her prize. Charlize Theron won in this category just two years ago. Judi Dench will probably tally last in the number of votes cast for her.

Witherspoon wins.

BEST ACTOR:

I really wish I could say that Heath Ledger was going to win for his amazing performance in "Brokeback Mountain." His truly is a performance for the ages. Acting students will be studying his work in this film for decades to come. In his creation of the Ennis del Mar character Ledger never made a wrong move, and if there is any justice he will win on Sunday night.

But when it comes to the Academy, justice is blind. The writing has been on the wall here for months. Philip Seymour Hoffman will win for his portrayal of Truman Capote.

On the small chance that Ledger and Hoffman somehow fall short, then Joaquin Phoenix sneaks through and wins for his roll as Johnny Cash in "Walk the Line." None of the other nominees have a chance.

Count on Hoffman.

BEST DIRECTOR:

Ang Lee will win for his work on "Brokeback Mountain." It truly is the best film of the year and Lee's brilliant direction brought out powerful performances from his entire cast. Even in the event of an upset in the Best Picture category, count on Lee to win here.

BEST PICTURE:

When I read two weeks ago that Roger Ebert predicted "Crash" to win the Best Picture prize I thought for sure the man had cracked his crystal ball. It is a powerful, emotional, complex picture – a close second in my rankings behind "Brokeback." But it was released in early May and "Brokeback Mountain" was steamrolling through the awards season to the ultimate finale...a Best Picture Oscar.

But then I realized that I should never question Ebert's crystal ball. It seems "Crash" has indeed grown some pretty strong legs. All the elements of an upset are swirling around this category.

What could possibly keep "Brokeback Mountain" from this prize? The 6,000 member motion picture Academy still has its conservative members, many of which would never vote for that "gay cowboy" movie. Are there enough of them to keep the Ang Lee masterpiece from its assumed place at the top of the heap? And if these conservatives vote against "Brokeback" would they really then mark their ballots for "Crash?" Probably not.

Yet, "Crash" still seems poised to knock the cowboys off their perch. Could it be that "Brokeback" peaked too early? In the end, I doubt it.

I don't think there will be enough votes to carry "Crash" past "Brokeback Mountain." But it will be close.

And so there you go. Right or wrong, that is how I think things will play out at the Kodak Theatre on Sunday night.