Warning Shot

As expected, Iraq war veteran Paul Hackett (Democrat-OH) lost his bid for a seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. This is a congressional district considered to be quite conservative. Last November President Bush won it with 67% of the vote and Rep. Rob Portman blasted his Democratic opponent 71% - 28%. But, oh how things can change in nine months! The results of last night's special election:

JEAN SCHMIDT (Rep) 57,974 (51.59%)
PAUL HACKETT (Dem) 54,401 (48.40%)
(Two write-in candidates received 0.01%)

Such a huge shift in voter sentiment (in a solidly Republican district) points toward an uphill battle for the Republicans in 2006. As Charlie Cook noted before last night's contest:

If Schmidt's victory margin is in double digits, this tells us that there is not much of an anti-GOP wind in Ohio right now. If the margin is say six to nine points for Schmidt, then there is a wind, but certainly no hurricane. A Schmidt win of less than five points should be a very serious warning sign for Ohio Republicans that something is very, very wrong...

Yes, there is a bit of victory in this defeat. And I doubt we have heard the last of Paul Hackett.

Update: Superb analysis on this election over at the Democratic Underground.